Gut-punch

Well, for his first live football game, my kid got to witness college football history: The second time that a ranked team has ever lost to a Division I-AA (FCS) team, after Michigan's stunner to Appalachian State a few years ago. So in other words, he got to watch the worst performance in Virginia Tech football history.

Obviously, this was a terrible, terrible performance. Still, I think Matt Hinton is very, very wrong when he says that VT is "a truly awful team right now." First of all, there were some obvious mitigating factors:

• They had had less than five days since their previous game, by far the shortest turnaround I've ever heard of in college or pro football. The game on Monday ended at midnight or so, so they didn't get back to Blacksburg until probably at least Tuesday afternoon. Today's game was at 1:30. A coach doesn't accept that kind of schedule unless they are damn sure they can beat the second opponent with hardly any preparation. Apparently Beamer wasn't sure enough.
  
• Moreover, they were coming off a devastating loss, a game against a big-time opponent that they had led for probably 75% of the second half, then lost with a minute left. It's hard to imagine a scenario - quick turnaround, disappointing loss, crappy opponent - where a team could be more down for a game.
  
• It was pouring pretty much throughout the game today. It started right at kick-off and only came down harder as the game went on.
• This game was a borderline neutral-site game. Tech students and alums were fairly liberal in giving tickets to JMU fans, presumably because we beat them 90-0 in the last two games combined and it didn't figure to be much of a game. Moreover, because we took an early lead and our defense was dominating (outside of a fluky 77-yard TD, they had something like 17 yards in the first half) and because of the pouring rain, a surprising number of VT fans left early. (I'll admit to being guilty on this count, though only because I was responsible for a soaking wet two-year-old. Being a parent is a bitch sometimes.) It wasn't scary at all in the first half, so I think everyone just assumed that VT would coast to something like a 27-7 victory.
  
• This was pretty clearly a fluky loss. Case in point: VT punted zero times today. But an interception, two fumbles, a turnover on downs, and three field goals meant that JMU didn't have to do much on its possessions to win.

Moreover, five days ago VT stood toe-to-toe with one of the best teams in the country and played them even. (Unless you want to argue that Boise State isn't one of the best teams in the country, but they're returning 20 of 22 starters from last year's 14-0 squad, so I don't really see it.) So to say Tech is an awful team right now is the laziest kind of "what have you done for me lately" analysis.

So, a prediction: Tech has some problems on the defensive line, and maybe on the offensive line, too. We might not make it to 10 wins for the whateverth straight year, but we're going to win 8-9 games, make a bowl, and have a shot at the Coastal Division of the ACC like we always do. And you'll never hear me say "X team played really shitty today. Never mind all other evidence, man do they ever suck."

Anyway, did I mention that VT played embarrassingly shitty today?